40% was supposed to imply that it’s nearly a 1 out of 3 chances. However, what that figure reflects are the factors as of the moment that he asked and one of those is the fact that Gresen is yet to interpret the message. Once that factor is changed, given Gresen’s and the core member’s temperaments, that figure will drastically change for sure and it is not towards an outcome where it is lowered.
Resolving all the potential conflicts during that possibilities’ realization isn’t the problem. They have enough firepower to get rid of one and all at once. The true complication like always is the aftermath afterwards. They’ve already gotten big thanks to their ship’s infamy and victories they’d gained from the Voyagers and pirates alike that challenged them and they’d just got a lot bigger aft
